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国泰君安:猪价若涨50% 通胀走势和货币政策会怎样?

作者:佚名    资讯来源:金融界网站    点击数:    更新时间:2019/4/4

在上周的首席相对论中,国泰君安研究所的农业首席分析师曾详细解释了为什么将本轮由猪瘟引发的猪周期叫做超级猪周期。

经过国泰君安宏观团队的缜密测算,此轮猪周期可能将带动猪价在今年上涨50%左右。

由于猪价是CPI的核心因素之一,如此大的涨幅是否会影响到通胀趋势,又会否迫使货币政策转向呢?

01

猪肉的拐点和影响的高点

1. 历史经验:猪疫对猪周期的推波助澜作用非常明显

历史猪疫爆发,后续都伴随了猪价的加速反转。前几轮猪周期也有类似的猪疫在推波助澜。

在第一轮猪周期中,2006 年夏季高致病性蓝耳病疫情开始大规模爆发,导致猪价持续快速上涨。2008 年3 月份猪价达到此轮周期的高点。

在第二轮猪周期中,2009年下半年开始,口蹄疫、猪瘟、蓝耳病等多种疫情同时大面积爆发,从而2010-2011年猪价持续向上。

第三轮猪周期前期,2014年的下半年,猪丹毒等再次爆发,推动第三轮猪周期的反转。

同样,历次猪疫爆发,后续都伴随了能繁母猪等供给端的缩减,但与历次疫情不同的是:目前非洲猪瘟还没有有效的疫苗可以治疗,因此可能对供给侧扰动的时间更长,强度更大。

不同猪周期对比

2. 能繁母猪减少,猪周期双底已出现

2018年8月3日我国确诊首例非洲猪瘟疫情,9月13日,财政部、农业农村部联合关于做好非洲猪瘟强制扑杀补助工作的通知,包括黑龙江、江苏、安徽、贵州等全国多个疫区的生猪进行大面积捕杀,其中包括大量的能繁母猪。

能繁母猪存栏量的变化是判断猪价的重要先行指标。

当前能繁母猪存栏量决定约一年后生猪供应量??梢钥吹?,能繁母猪存栏自2016年以来缓慢放缓,2018年下行加速。非洲猪瘟导致死亡率上升后,能繁母猪产能于四季度以来出现断崖式回落的状态。

预计2019年3月、4月,养猪(能繁母猪)产能或达此轮周期最低点。

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